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Just eight teams remain in the hunt for the premiership and while the Panthers are runaway leaders, all other seven sides are a realistic shot of going deep to challenge them for the title.
Here, foxsports.com.au presents you with the ultimate form guide, looking at every finalist’s biggest strength and weakness as well as one player in fine form and another who needs to lift.
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LISTEN TO EPISODE 24 OF THE FOX LEAGUE PODCAST WITH JARROD CROKER
PENRITH PANTHERS (1st, 20-4)
Past five games: 3-2 (WON against Raiders by 20, LOST against Storm by 16, WON against Rabbitohs by four, WON against Warriors by 34, LOST against Cowboys by 30)
Strength: The spine
The Panthers have been the best team in the league the past three years and throughout that period there has always been one constant — the spine. Penrith’s key playmakers are among the most talented in the competition but more importantly, combined they are the most well-balanced. You start at the back with Dylan Edwards, the workhorse who may not have the subtle touch like James Tedesco or Tom Trbojevic but is a crucial cog in this premiership powerhouse. Then in the halves there is the flamboyant and exuberant Jarome Luai, balanced out by the calm and in-control Nathan Cleary. Apisai Koroisau, meanwhile, is a deceptive mastermind out of dummy-half but also knows when to simplify his game if Cleary and Luai are in a mood.
Weakness: Parramatta
There is not much this Penrith side has done wrong. After all, two of its four defeats this year came when Nathan Cleary was sent off and later with 12 players rested. But the Eels just seem to have the right formula to cause all kinds of problems for the Panthers. The simple fact that it is the Western Sydney derby means Parramatta will always be up for the task. Then there is the Eels’ forward pack. It rivals Penrith for the best in the competition, with power game up front complemented by the ability to pass short or offload late near the line. Parramatta’s forward pack ran for 301 more metres than Penrith (852 versus 551) when the two sides met earlier in the year, with the Eels picking up a 22-20 win. Crucially though, the Eels’ big men also got the second-phase going (14 offloads versus two) and that proved the difference.
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Player in hot form: Apisai Koroisau
Koroisau has taken his game and involvement in general to another level with halves Cleary suspended and Luai injured. The crafty rake has 10 tackle busts from his past four games and was at his scheming best in the 26-22 upset win over South Sydney, setting up two tries including the match-winner. The return of Luai and Cleary will only make him more dangerous given there will be less attention on him from the opposition defence.
Player who needs a lift: Liam Martin
While Viliame Kikau may be Penrith’s strongest weapon on the left edge, their right side is also lethal and Martin showed exactly how destructive he can be three weeks ago. The NSW Blues backrower scored the match-winning try against the Rabbitohs, running hard all night and coming up with a few costly mistakes before being rewarded for his persistence. Those errors though do creep into Martin’s game a bit too often and need to be cut down, particularly before the finals. With Martin set to test the open market this off-season, this could also be a big chance to bump up his asking price, regardless of whether he stays or goes.
The expert verdict on why they can win: Buzz Rothfield — No injury will be too much: “What this has shown without Cleary, Luai and Fisher-Harris is they have depth to win the competition. They can handle a bump, a bruise and an injury and still do it.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Scott Sattler — Cleary could come back rusty: “I think his [Nathan Cleary’s] timing might be a little bit out. There is no doubt he is working harder than anyone else, but until you get on the field and you have the fire and your face, you need to start adjusting your timing. In finals it becomes quicker, so you need to take another couple of steps back so he is going to be a little bit jaded I think early on in the game. He is probably going to have to dust the cobwebs off a little bit early on.”
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CRONULLA SHARKS (2nd, 18-6)
Past five games: 5-0 (WON against Dragons by six, WON against Tigers by 24, WON against Sea Eagles by 34, WON against Bulldogs by 16, WON against Knights by 22)
Strength: Defence
Back when the Sharks were a genuine premiership threat, it was built on the back of a grit and toughness that made them one of the hardest teams in the league to crack. Under Craig Fitzgibbon, that resilience defending their line has returned. According to AAP, the Sharks are the first team since the Storm in 2008 to concede less than 12 points a game over the second half of a regular season. Sure, their draw has been relatively soft but you can only play what is in front of you. Even if you take the whole season into account, Cronulla boasts the best red zone conceded ratio (17.6) in the league.
Weakness: Playing the contenders
While the Sharks can’t do much about their draw, they will be playing the best of the best in the finals and their record against the top contenders is mixed. There was stronger wins over the Storm and Cowboys mixed in with tight victories against the Eels and Rabbitohs. Then there was a reality check against the Roosters along with defeats to the Panthers, Raiders and Storm. Can Cronulla match it with the top teams in the competition? No one knows for sure at this point.
Player in hot form: Blayke Brailey
He may not immediately come to mind when you ask for the best hooker in the game but Brailey has been a key ingredient in Cronulla’s success this year. The 23-year-old is having a career-best season, almost tripling both his try assists and linebreak assists while keeping up his usual workload in defence. More recently, Brailey has four try assists, five linebreak assists and four tackle busts in his past four games as Cronulla went on a winning run into the finals.
Player who needs a lift: Nicho Hynes
He has been Cronulla’s best player this year and may even take out the Dally M medal in his first season at halfback. But finals footy is a completely different challenge to the regular season and if the Sharks are serious title contenders, they need Hynes to go to another level. The post-season is all about owning the big moments and Hynes has not had much experience with that given his limited role at Melbourne. The Cronulla playmaker admitted as much speaking with foxsports.com.au last week.
“There’s going to be a lot of talk about myself leading this team to the finals,” he said.
“I’ve got to do my best to deal with that situation, talk to my mindset coach about it and do whatever I can to make sure that there’s no weight on my shoulders so I can go into the finals series like I go into every other game.”
The expert verdict on why they can win: Buzz Rothfield — The doubters will fire them up: “We’re doubting them and it’s the goal of every rugby league side to go into the finals under the radar with people questioning. They’d love that.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Braith Anasta — The soft run home: “They’ve had a really soft run in. They had Newcastle, the Tigers, Manly and the Bulldogs. It’s not the best preparation for the finals.”
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NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (3rd, 17-7)
Past five games: 3-2 (WON against Bulldogs by 14, LOST against Roosters by 14, WON against Warriors by 44, LOST against Rabbitohs by 10, WON against Panthers by 30)
Strength: Dynamic forward pack
At the start of last year, dynamic is not the kind of word you would use to describe North Queensland’s pack. The second row in particular (Mitchell Dunn and Coen Hess) lacked explosiveness. How things have changed. In breakout rookie Jeremiah Nanai and mid-season recruit Luciano Leilua, the Cowboys have plenty of creativity coming from the second row. Then up front Reuben Cotter has quickly established himself as one of the best all-round forwards in the game, with much-needed leg speed when used off the bench. Jason Taumalolo is still a game-breaker at lock but no longer is the only threat up front.
Weakness: Building pressure
There is not a whole lot that the Cowboys have done wrong but if there is anything to single out, it is their ability to build pressure — specifically by forcing dropouts. Despite having two solid organising halves, North Queensland ranks 12th in the league for forced dropouts per game. The Cowboys have found it quite easy to pile the points on but when they are not coming as fast, they will need to find ways to sustain pressure on the opposition and break them down that way. Forcing dropouts is one of them.
Player in hot form: Scott Drinkwater
Drinkwater took over at fullback when Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow went down injured and has taken advantage of the opportunity, with his ball-playing out the back adding an extra dimension to North Queensland’s attack. The Penrith junior has topped 100 run metres in his past five games to go with four linebreaks, 17 tackle busts, four linebreak assists and a try assist.
Player who needs a lift: Jason Taumalolo
It is not so much that Taumalolo has played poorly but rather that he looms as the biggest unknown factor ahead of the finals. With the likes of Cotter and Reece Robson providing momentum through the middle, Taumalolo has not had the same workload he used to carry. But that in itself also opens up more opportunities for the hulking lock forward to wreak havoc if used correctly, particularly off quick play-the-balls. It will also be on Taumalolo himself to go after the ball more in moments when his halves may be struggling to generate points, with one of the best offloads in the game.
The expert verdict on why they can win: Cooper Cronk — Busting lack of big-game experience myth: “They have got five players, young kids like Dearden who experienced Origin, that is just like a finals experience. So when you think about lack of finals, well actually they have got 12 players there who have experienced some high level stuff.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Buzz Rothfield — Not having another level in them: “I’m a bit worried about them. I think in the finals, as much as they’re impressive, you’ve got to find another gear. You’ve got to take one more step. What worries me is the game against the Roosters. I don’t think they were in that football game. I am concerned whether they can take that next step. It’s a big step, finals footy.”
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PARRAMATTA EELS (4th, 16-8)
Past five games: 4-1 (WON against Sea Eagles by 16, WON against Rabbitohs by 26, WON against Bulldogs by 36, WON against Broncos by 47, WON against Storm by eight)
Strength: Ball-playing forwards
It is not just Parramatta’s power game up front that makes its big men so hard to handle. It is when you get two or three defenders on Junior Paulo, only for him to pop a late offload or short pass before the line and catch out an outnumbered defence. Paulo, Ryan Matterson and Shaun Lane are all in the top 15 forwards for offloads per game. Lane also tops the forwards for try assists, having set up 11 in total this year.
Weakness: Consistency
A win over Melbourne last week was Parramatta’s third-straight but just the second time it had achieved that feat this season (Rounds 3-5). The Eels have just never seemed to be able to put a string of strong performances together and that is what they will need to do for four consecutive games if they lose to the Panthers.
Player in hot form: Shaun Lane
Viliame Kikau and Hudson Young are up there. Jeremiah Nanai had a breakout season. Keaon Koloamatangi was underrated as always for South Sydney. But Shaun Lane was the best second-rower in the league this season. It is quite the achievement for the 27-year-old, who in the past had bounced in an out of first grade. But with career-high numbers in run metres, try assists, linebreak assists, tackle busts and offloads, it is hard to deny just how important Lane has been to Parramatta’s success. His combination with five-eighth Dylan Brown in particular has been a weapon for the Eels.
Player who needs a lift: Reed Mahoney
While so much of the focus is understandably on the halves, hooker Reed Mahoney could hold the key to how far Parramatta goes this time around. His absence was noticeable in the Eels’ 8-6 semi-final loss to the Panthers last year but Mahoney has not exactly been in the same form this year. The 24-year-old has played seven more games this season but managed six fewer try assists and four fewer linebreak assists. He is also running the ball less. If Mitchell Moses and Brown have a target on their heads it will be on Mahoney to provide an extra option in attack from dummy-half. His long-range kicking game in particular could be handy.
The expert verdict on why they can win: Cooper Cronk — Hitting form at the right time: “I just think they’re there. I think this is their chance with the players moving on. They’ve gone about it differently. Previously they’ve been one of the best teams for three quarters of the year and started tailing off. I think they’re on an upwards trajectory this time.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Cooper Cronk — One Moses question mark: “This will be the biggest test of Mitchell Moses’ career. When Parramatta play well, it’s their front rowers that dominate and as a half you know if you’ve got dominant play-the-ball speed you can get over the ad line and pick teams apart. The test for Mitchell is can he win this game [against Penrith] off the backfoot?”
MELBOURNE STORM (5th, 15-9)
Past five games: 3-2 (WON against Titans by 18, WON against Panthers by 16, WON against Broncos by 48, LOST against Roosters by four, LOST against Eels by 8)
Strength: The Grant-Smith one-two punch
At first it was a dilemma. How do the Storm fit Harry Grant and Brandon Smith into the same team, especially when Grant is more than capable of going the full 80 minutes. Well, Craig Bellamy had a plan and like always, it turned out to be a masterstroke. Smith’s combination of speed and explosiveness made him the perfect middle forward while his quick play-the-balls opened up opportunities for Grant to scheme from dummy-half.
“The reason why Brandon Smith is so effective is his physicality in the contact but what is better than that is his leg speed over the advantage line,” Cooper Cronk said on ‘The Matty Johns Podcast’.
“If you are a defender, he’s at you quick and you start stressing about: ‘I need to turn in’ and then there’s space for someone else or you worry there’s space on the outside and turn your shoulder and Brandon cuts and runs straight through.
“In and amongst that, Harry Grant has a beacon at the moment. Once Harry Grant goes, Munster who is in a fullback mindset at the moment, doesn’t worry about setting up his outside men, he’s normally pushing.”
Weakness: Edge defence
Melbourne is a tough side to crack but if there is a weakness it is the edge defence. Injuries have tested the Storm’s depth in the outside backs and defensive combinations take time to form. The Storm have conceded only nine tries in the middle of the park, which rates as the best in the league but their 29 and 36 in the right and left channels ranks them eighth and seventh.
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Player in hot form: Jahrome Hughes
Melbourne can hardly afford to be down another key player, with Jahrome Hughes recently battling a calf injury, although he is set to play Saturday’s game. The Storm halfback had been in fine form before the injury, with his running game in particular causing plenty of problems for opposition defences. Hughes had topped 100 run metres in his past two outings to go with 13 tackle busts, three linebreaks. It remains to be seen whether the calf issue will hold Hughes back from taking on the line with the same intent he usually does.
Player who needs a lift: Brandon Smith
As good as Smith has been working in tandem with Grant, his impact has slightly dropped off in the past fortnight. The nuggety forward has averaged just under 60 metres in that time and has one tackle bust to his name, far from the 19 he had from the four weeks prior. The Storm face a rampaging Raiders pack this week and then either the Panthers or Eels in the semi-finals, meaning they will need all the impact they can get out of Smith.
The expert verdict on why they can win: Paul Kent — The defensive resilience: “They’re going to strangle you to death. They’re going to defend their way to a premiership. They’re not going to try and blow you apart. There was a period where they were scoring points and their whole attack had transformed. It looks like they’ve gone back to defence now. It’s Craig Bellamy’s pet project.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Buzz Rothfield — Key absences will be too much: “Two big losses — Welch in the front row and Papenhuyzen out the back, who was breaking records and leading the Dally M.”
SYDNEY ROOSTERS (6th, 15-9)
Past five games: 5-0 (WON against Broncos by 18, WON against Cowboys by 14, WON against Tigers by 66, WON against Storm by four, WON against Rabbitohs by 10)
Strength: Set starts
They may be without Joey Manu this week, but the Roosters’ back three remains intact and is one of the best in the league at getting sets started off on the right note. Together, James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou and Joseph Suaalii have combined to average just over 460 metres per game. Given the forward pack the Roosters have, that is quite the advantage to make sure Luke Keary and Sam Walker are playing off the frontfoot as often as possible.
Weakness: Giving up cheap field position
There are not a lot of holes in this Roosters line-up, even with Manu sidelined. If there is one area of improvement though it is ball-handling. Trent Robinson’s men have averaged 10.8 errors per game (fourth-worst in the league) and a completion rate of 75 per cent (equal-worst). Admittedly, the Rabbitohs and Sharks also sit with them at the bottom of the NRL in that regard but there really are not many other holes in this Roosters side so this is the only one that stands out. They do also average the second-most penalties conceded per game so more broadly, the Roosters give up too much cheap possession and make the job much harder than it should be.
Player in hot form: Matt Lodge
Already boasting some of the best front rowers in the game, the Roosters made a shrewd mid-season move to sign Matt Lodge and it has immediately paid dividends. The 27-year-old has been in strong form since making the switch to the Eastern Suburbs, averaging 132 metres per game while starting.
“I’ve always heard big raps about Matt Lodge and up until this year I didn’t see it,” Matty Johns said last month.
“I thought about the Broncos, I thought he looked cumbersome, I thought he was a liability in defence. He’s been a blessing for the Roosters, he’s been outstanding.”
Player who needs a lift: Paul Momirovski
Momirovski is not going to be the same game-breaker in attack that Manu is but the Roosters don’t need him to be that guy anyway. What is more important is that his defence is top-notch as Momirovski will have the tough task of defending South Sydney’s lethal left edge this week. If he fails in his assignment, the Roosters’ premiership dreams could be quashed.
The expert verdict on why they can win: Greg Alexander — Keary is hitting his straps: “The ball-playing of Luke Keary is as good as anyone. I think if Keary can ball-play as he did tonight [against the Rabbitohs] and get back to the Luke Keary that we know, well the Roosters are always a chance because he just adds something they miss so much when it’s not there.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Cooper Cronk — Filling the Manu void: “The issue I’ve got is how do they place him in right centre defensively up against that left edge of South Sydney? They can have Momirovski come in, Suaalii back, Daniel Tupou but that centre position on the right side stopping Walker, Latrell and Alex Johnston putting tries down. That is the key. That is absolutely the key match-up.”
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (7th, 14-10)
Past five games: 3-2 (WON against Warriors by 38, WON against Eels by 26, LOST against Panthers by four, WON against Cowboys by 10, LOST against Roosters by 10)
Strength: The left edge attack
The Rabbitohs sit fourth in the league for total tries scored and first for linebreaks, the majority of which have been created on their lethal left edge. It all starts with Latrell Mitchell scheming out the back, giving South Sydney an extra passing and running option to only further put the defence in two minds. Cody Walker is also dual threat, with nine line engagements per game to go with 0.8 try assists, both numbers putting him among the top of all five-eighths in the competition. As for Alex Johnston, he just knows how to score. South Sydney has scored 49 of its 107 tries this season on the left edge and it could be particularly dangerous this week targeting Momirovski in defence.
Weakness: Kicking game
With Adam Reynolds gone it was always going to be an adjustment for the Rabbitohs and it is his pinpoint kicking game they have missed most. South Sydney ranks last in the league for kick metres, long kicks and tries scored off kicks while they rate third-worst for attacking kicks and 11th for forced dropouts. It is not too much of an issue for the Rabbitohs if their forward pack is rolling up the field but if they are playing off the backfoot, a strong kicking game is one way to win back momentum. That is one doubt hanging over last year’s grand finalists.
Player in hot form: Tom Burgess
In a star-studded forward pack, Tom Burgess has been one of the more underrated reasons for South Sydney’s success this year. For Mitchell and Walker to work their magic, both players need the big men to lay a platform and Burgess has been at the forefront of that. The 30-year-old has churned through plenty of work off the bench since Round 16, averaging over 160 metres during that period.
Player who needs a lift: Cody Walker
Walker has always had the ability. The biggest issue though has been his temperament. For someone of his experience, Walker too often loses his patience, be it as a result of opposition taunting or his own mistakes. It was not as big an issue with someone like Reynolds next to him but now he is partnered alongside Lachlan Ilias. The rookie halfback will need the 32-year-old Walker to remain involved in the attack and maintain his focus, even if things go wrong early on.
The expert verdict on why they can win: Cooper Cronk — Shutting down Latrell is not easy: “There is no doubt when you come up against Latrell, who is an elite player in the competition you try and come up with ways to limit their impact. But he is a star and he will come up with ways to try and combat that.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Cooper Cronk — But it can’t just be the Latrell and Cody show — “The thing about Souths is I think they need a lot to go right. Everyone is talking about Latrell and Cody and I get that but their defence is the key thing for me. The other thing for Souths is they are a very conservative team coming out of their own end. They kind of wait until they get into good ball situations and then their eyes light up and start attacking. So, I think if the opposition can do what Penrith did in the grand final and limit the good ball opportunities Souths have to win the football game. Souths need to do the fundamentals a bit better as opposed to waiting for Cody or Latrell to get the ball.”
CANBERRA RAIDERS (8th, 14-10)
Past five games: 4-1 (LOST against Panthers by 20, WON against Dragons by two, WON against Knights by six, WON against Sea Eagles by 42, WON against Tigers by 46)
Strength: The forward pack
The Raiders may be the eighth best team in the league but their forward pack is certainly one of the best. Their starting front rowers are the best in the game. Tapine (150 metres per game) ranks second behind Payne Haas while Josh Papalii (114) is 12th among the league’s props. Moving to the second row, while Hudson Young (92), Elliott Whitehead (55) and Corey Harawira-Naera all fall short of averaging over 100 metres, they have creative flair to their games which makes them a challenge to defend. Young and Harawira-Naera, for example, rank in the top 10 second rowers for average try assists. Adam Elliott has also been a revelation at lock, running for over 100 metres in seven of 14 games since making the switch to the middle while putting in plenty of work in defence too.
Weakness: Discipline
The Storm don’t waste opportunities and on Saturday, the Raiders need to be careful not to gift them too many of those. Unfortunately for Canberra, discipline has been an issue all season. The Green Machine’s ball-handling has not been the best, particularly inside their own half, averaging 3.2 incomplete sets per game — the second-worst in the competition. The Raiders are also the fourth-most penalised team (6.1 per game) on average.
Player in hot form: Hudson Young
Forget being a bolter for the Kangaroos side at this year’s World Cup, teammate Elliott Whitehead said Hudson Young has to be there. The 24-year-old’s recent form certainly warrants strong consideration. Just in the past fortnight Young has four tries, four linebreaks and 13 tackle busts Whitehead was full of praise for his “freak” teammate when speaking to foxsports.com.au earlier this week.
“I can’t talk him (up) high enough,” he said.
“He works so hard on and off the field. Everything he gets he deserves. He’s been playing outstanding, I think he’s probably the form back-rower in the competition at the moment.”
Player who needs a lift: Tom Starling
Every team needs a finals X-factor and Starling shapes as Canberra’s best bet. Zac Woolford has been solid and gaining confidence in his starting role but the Raiders will need a bit more spark from dummy-half as games drag on into the second half. That is where Starling comes in, although he needs to improve his passing to get more consistent minutes off the bench. If not, Ricky Stuart needs to look at how he uses Starling so as to get the most out of his running game, which still remains his biggest strength.
The expert verdict on why they can win: Buzz Rothfield — A powerhouse up front: “This Raiders forward pack is as good as any in the comp. Papalii and Tapine up front, Elliott is playing good in the middle. Hudson Young and Whitehead… I don’t think anyone forward pack in the comp will get over the top of them. They will at least hold their own.”
The expert verdict on why they can’t win: Mal Meninga — Their strong recent form may be hard to maintain for four-straight weeks: “Finals is a different ballgame. Momentum is a factor going into finals but it’s going to be tough for teams finishing fifth to eighth to make any road into the back end of the finals.”
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