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We just might have our three-way fight for victory at along last at the Dutch Grand Prix.
We’ve been teased a three-team battle all season, and at some races we even saw glimpses of one, most recently in Hungary.
But after qualifying in the Netherlands, where Red Bull Racing, Ferrari and Mercedes all had legitimate claims to pole position, it might finally be about to come to fruition.
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Something about this short, roller-coaster-style circuit has brought the frontrunning cars together. It’s challenging the teams on set-up and extracting the most from the drivers, and as a result we got a Q3 that was a perfect spectacle for the imperfection of the performances.
The question is: who can get closest to perfect on Sunday?
Max Verstappen will have the home crowd in his corner but perhaps not the car. It took a long time to get it into the window for pole, and even then he needed mistakes from others to seal the deal.
Ferrari has the fastest car but carries substantial baggage after a litany of missed opportunities.
Mercedes has never been hungrier for a victory — or for the chance to capitalise on its car’s fleeting and unpredictable form.
Overtaking may not be in abundance, but intrigue should be high for Sunday’s Dutch Grand Prix.
RED BULL TURNS IT AROUND — JUST
There was a period on Friday afternoon at which Verstappen was genuinely long odds for pole position, so bad was Red Bull Racing’s practice pace.
The Dutchman had lost much of FP1 to a gearbox problem, which not only cost him vital track time but also misled the team on set-up for FP2.
Funnily enough, the RBR underestimated the quality of Sergio Perez’s data in lieu of Verstappen’s track time, with Helmut Marko admitting that “Perez had all those problems in first practice, but we thought it was just his Friday form — often it is not very impressive”.
Once the penny dropped that the car was actually outside its window, major work was done overnight to turn that around and deliver Verstappen a car he could wield to fight for pole, and he only ever needs a sniff.
The difference in the two days is clear to see on the telemetry. Compared to Friday Verstappen was braking earlier to carry a higher minimum speed into the corners, particularly in the second sector, to maximise his time accelerating out of the corners, where his car had ad its biggest advantage.
His approach through turn eight, feathering the throttle rather than jabbing the brakes as Leclerc did, kept up the momentum through turns 9 and 10 especially.
These were crucial gains, particularly given Leclerc confessed to being sloppy through this same sector at turn 10. When he failed to set a personal-best split here, it was Verstappen’s purple sector that ultimately got him pole.
“It was really fine margins,” Verstappen said. “I managed to recover a bit in sector two and that was just enough for pole. I knew that I was losing a bit of time there, so just full risk … in Q3.”
But that doesn’t mean Red Bull Racing is home for the race.
Ferrari appears to have regained the mantle of fastest car, even if only slightly. If you add together Leclerc’s fastest sectors, for example — essentially accounting for his mistake in the second sector — you get a lap good enough for pole by 0.157 seconds.
It’s more of a Ferrari track, after all — all corners and few straights — and with both red cars starting immediately behind Verstappen while Perez starts a little further back in fifth, the Italian team has a great chance to apply some pressure off the line and then bring strategy to bear during the race, which is where overtaking is likely to be done given the narrowness of the track.
“The easy way would be a great start, P1 in turn 1 and then just leave Max behind,” Leclerc joked about his path to victory. “But if that doesn’t happen again, Carlos and I are in the front, so let’s see what we can do there.
“I think you always try and work together whenever you are in those positions. We haven’t done the strategy meeting yet, but let’s see.”
The championship may be long gone, but it’s not too late for Ferrari to restore some pride to the brand. It has a great chance today.
POLE LOST FOR HAMILTON?
If you didn’t know better, you’d have thought the Mercedes cars of Belgium and the Netherlands were in fact different machines altogether.
The W13 was around two seconds off the pace at Spa, but Zandvoort the gap had shrunk to 0.3 seconds — so much so in fact that it was a genuine pole chance.
Hamilton was down only 0.041 seconds on Verstappen’s pole lap at the end of the second sector despite failing to set even so much as a personal best in the middle split, and the Mercedes has been quick through the final sector all weekend.
But then Sergio Perez spun his car through the final corner, forcing both Hamilton and Russell to abandon their final attempts, leaving them fourth and sixth respectively.
Was there enough there for pole? Toto Wolff has no doubt.
“On our on car data, and we have looked at it a lot, we were actually 0.1 seconds up before the incident,” he said.
“Now, we don‘t know how we would have come out of it, but we were definitely aiming for pole position, and that’s a good feeling.
“I think we could have been there or thereabouts.“
Hamilton was buoyed despite the missed chance, the seven-time champion clearly energised by the fact his car seems to suit the Dutch track.
“It‘s like a mood swing,“ Hamilton said. “Like the characteristics of a human being, you don’t know what side of the bed you’re going to get out of.
“I’m much happier coming into this weekend to have a car that‘s potentially fighting, but I just don’t understand. One weekend it can be so far off and the next weekend all of a sudden we’re right there, so it’s confusing for sure.”
What this means for the race is unclear. Mercedes is normally much closer to the pace in race trim, thanks in part to its great tyre wear — and this is likely to be a two-stop race, potentially giving the tram an edge.
“I see no reason why we can‘t battle for a podium,” Russell said. “We just need a clean start, not lose any positions to the midfield drivers and go from there“
He was too cautious to forecast a victory shot, but with all six frontrunners in the mix and strategy uncertain, a few good calls at the right moment could put it in contention.
SCHUMACHER THRIVES UNDER RENEWED PRESSURE
The talk leading into this round after the sport reconvened in Belgium last week was that Mick Schumacher was as good as finished in Formula 1, with Haas insufficiently sold on the German’s abilities and his alternatives in the sport pretty slim.
Saturday even continued with Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko denying he’d be interested in inducting the Ferrari junior — who is reportedly set to lose his Scuderia backing — in the event he were sacked by Haas.
But as we’ve seen from Schumacher already this season, pressurising his position tends to see him generate diamonds.
It was after stern words were fired his way from team boss Guenther Steiner after a big and clumsy crash in Monaco — just the latest in a string of smashes at the time — that he started to find some form.
He would’ve finished in the top 10 in Canada without the engine problems that cruelled his race, he scored his maiden points in Britain and then backed up again in Austria and then beat his teammate in Hungary in what was the best run of form of his short F1 career.
Now, in Zandvoort, Schumacher made Q3 for the fourth time this year and qualified eighth, his second-best Saturday result of the season.
“It’s great to be here,” he said. “We were very happy with our performance.
“Unexpected — we expected to go out in Q2, but to go through to Q3 and kind of repeat the lap time we did prior to Q2 was definitely decent. Now we have a good starting position tomorrow.”
Is it enough to save his seat? According to Guenther Steiner, who spoke earlier in the day, nothing’s yet been decided.
“Mick … is still in the running,” he said. “We want to wait a few more races.
“Also, how Mick is doing, Mick did a very good job in Canada, Austria and Silverstone, you know, and since then the car was not at par, but let‘s see what we do here.
“As I said, we are in no hurry to do anything at the moment.”
Responding well to pressure is always a good trait in a driver. If he can score points this weekend and recapture that July form, he could yet rescue a career teetering on the brink.
A RACE WITH TOO MUCH FLARE
There’s no race with an atmosphere like the Dutch Grand Prix, but sometimes you can have too much of a good thing.
With a capacity 105,000-strong crowd in attendance, Circuit Zandvoort was pumping from early in the morning until late at night in support of their champion, Max Verstappen.
But some fans clearly got a little too excited, and in an otherwise well-behaved crowd two separate incidents of flares on track threatened to spoil the party.
Flares have become commonplace at European races — thanks largely to Verstappen’s supporter base — and though the sport has formally banned them on precinct, there’s a tolerance for them for the benefit of the spectacle.
But two made their way onto the circuit during qualifying. The first caused a red flag early in Q2, the second triggered yellow flags just as Verstappen was embarking on his second timed lap. Had it not rolled off the circuit on its own volition, there’s a good chance the session would’ve been suspended without time enough to be resumed, meaning the Dutchman would’ve lost his shot to overhaul Leclerc for pole.
“It’s just very silly to do,” Verstappen said. “To hold flares already it’s nice — of course there’s a limit to how much — but to throw it on the track is just stupid.
“Just don’t do that. It’s not good for anyone, you get thrown out, so you can’t see the race, and for us the session is stopped because it is dangerous.”
Carlos Sainz said that while he was fine with flares being used outside of sessions, the smoke could be perilous for drivers.
“I think it was good that they used them on the in-lap when Max took pole but not in the middle of the race or lap 1 when we are in the middle of fights.
“At 300 kilometres per hour, you don’t want this kind of distraction from smoke.
“Hopefully the organisation can do a good job in warning when it’s time is good to use them and when it’s not.”
The FIA said the flare-throwers were identified and ejected from the circuit.
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